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Sussex Stakes Betting Odds

The biggest race of Glorious Goodwood, the Sussex Stakes is the first contest to see the young and old of the miling division clash at the top level. Run over the twisting 1m course at the Sussex track, it is the first time that the Classic generation meet those aged four and upwards at the distance.

This is how they bet for the 2024 edition:

Odds to follow

Who are this year’s Sussex Stakes Favourites?

Three-year-olds get an 8lb weight allowance at this point of the season, and that age group have claimed three of the last five renewals. These factors probably explain why the market is dominated by Classic winners and contenders for the 2024 Sussex Stakes.

At the head of affairs is Rosallion, who has swiftly established himself at the top of the three among the three-year-old milers despite a competitive field in that regard. Richard Hannon’s charge won the Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh followed by the St James’s Palace Stakes. In both of those contests, he finished strongly despite keenness and trouble in running, leaving many of the opinion that he has more still to come.

His nearest rival in that Royal Ascot race was the regally bred Henry Longfellow. A runner for the Ballydoyle powerhouse, he won all three races as a juvenile before disappointing on his return in the French 2,000 Guineas. However, soft ground and a 245-day break may have been the issue, as he cosily beat the rest of the field at Ascot, with only Rosallion wearing him down.

The potential forgotten horse is Notable Speech. The 2,000 Guineas winner at Newmarket on his first start on turf, Charlie Appleby’s son of Dubawi was a hugely underwhelming favourite in the St James’s Palace, trailing in seventh of the eight competitors, but the yard’s runners were not firing at the time. If the stable begins to rake in the winners, expect him to step forward again.

Who are this year’s Sussex Stakes Underdogs?

The Sussex Stakes has not been a great race for outsiders in the last decade, with eight of the last ten winners going off at 7/2 or shorter, with six favourites successful. However, the two seven-year-old winners in that time, Here Comes When (2017) and Lightning Spear (2018), did it for the veterans at 20/1 and 9/1 respectively, so minor upsets can happen.

The only horse older than four in the top seven in the betting is Inspiral, who may well drop back to this trip after underperforming over 1m2f at Royal Ascot. She was last of five in the race a year ago, but the unseasonably soft conditions may well have played their part and she may well have more to give at the top level just yet.

At the other end of the spectrum, another improving three-year-old is Haatem, who claimed the Group 3 Jersey Stakes last time out after placing in both the English and Irish Guineas. He defied a penalty in that royal meeting success and could be difficult to pass if getting to the front on the long downhill run early in the stretch.

An overlooked Group 1 winner in the field may be Charyn, who took the Queen Anne Stakes in fine style to open Royal Ascot. He looks a much improved animal to the one who was third in this a year ago, with three wins and an unlucky second in the Lockinge Stakes to his name this term.

Last Year’s Sussex Stakes Odds

Paddington was maintaining an exceptional stretch of form when beating his rivals from the front in the 2023 edition of the Sussex Stakes.

Betting Strategies for the Sussex Stakes

Finding the winner of the Sussex Stakes may have seemed too easy for punters in the last two years, with Baaeed and Paddington going off at 1/6 and 4/9 respectively. Yet there would still have been ways to bet and study the form for all bettors depending on where they looked.

Outright Winner

You would only have made 0.6 points worth of profit across the last two renewals combined by finding the heavily odds-on winners. However, picking the winner is still the best form of validation in a big race, especially if this year’s were to go off at a bigger price.

Each Way

Speaking of bigger prices, each-way betting can sometimes prove the superior way to play the Sussex Stakes. The runner-ups in the previous two runnings have gone off at 12/1 and 11/1, earning each-way backers of those two a bigger profit for a level stake than those who backed the winners on the nose.

Draw Biases

Despite small fields, no winner of the Sussex Stakes since 2014 has emerged from stall 1. Like with races over long distances at Ascot, the inside draw can often result in runners being boxed in, and Goodwood is not the easiest track to find space from the back.

Sussex Stakes Odds of Past 10 Winners

The odds of the last ten winners point towards a heavily weighted race in favour of favourites, though with a level stake each year, you would still have lost money backing the favourites despite six winners out of ten. Here are the odds of all the recent winners.

YearHorseOdds
2014Kingman2/5F
2015Solow2/5F
2016The Gurkha11/8F
2017Here Comes When20/1
2018Lightning Spear9/1
2019Too Darn HotEvsF
2020Mohaather3/1
2021Alcohol Free7/2
2023Baaeed1/6F
2023Paddington4/9F